About 85% of global deal value. Storage M&A up 70%. Private equity made 65% of acquisitions.
Largest deal: $33.4B take-private of AESSee where the next deal is forming before the market prices it.
Meridian Global is a global market intelligence firm. We map markets, regions, industries, deals and startup funding to show where opportunity and risk are forming over the short, medium and long run, and support investors, companies and founders with research and advisory to act on it.
Deal outlook matrix
Updated 9 Nov 2026Click any row or score to see why. Our view from IMF, World Bank, BlackRock, UBS, Mergermarket, LSEG and investment-bank research; sources in each card. Not investment advice.
We map the world's markets so you can see the next deal first
Meridian Global is a global market intelligence firm. We map markets, regions, industries, deals, opportunities and risks, and startup funding, score where opportunity and threat are building over the short, medium and long term, and provide research and advisory support so you can act with confidence.
An independent market-intelligence and research firm, based in India and serving clients globally. Every figure we publish names its source and date.
We map six layers: markets, regions, industries, deals, opportunities and risks, and startup funding, and turn them into clear outlooks across three time horizons.
Free research and tools, custom briefs, research retainers and advisory support: target screening, investor and buyer mapping, and round strategy.
- Spot opportunities and threats early, by region and sector
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Everything you need to read the market, in one place
Six services built on the same sourced, deal-focused research. Start free, go deeper when you need it.
Daily closes across equities, bonds, rates, currencies and commodities, with sources.
Updated every trading day→CoverageDeal & industry outlooks6 regions, 8 sectors and 5 deal types, each scored for 0–12 months, 1–3 years and 3–10 years.
3 horizons→InsightsResearch insightsSourced deep-dives on deals, energy and geopolitics: what's changing and why it matters.
Every source listed→ToolsDeal DeskDeal tracker, valuation multiples, events calendar, 24 country fact sheets and our track record.
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Six regions, one global view
Switch the globe between our outlook and today's market data. Click a country or choose a region for the numbers, our view and what to watch next.
What we are watching: Global
Updated 9 November 2026 for US–Iran talks, the rate-hike cycle, the US midterm results and the extended US–China truce. Each signal is scored for its effect on deal value, volume and execution risk. Switch region above to update.
Scores are Meridian Global's views, not investment advice. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2026), World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Oct 2026), Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBI and RBA decisions, Mergermarket, J.P. Morgan and PwC deal research, and our Insight "The long war". Click any score in the Deal outlook matrix for full sources. Read the Insight.
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M&A, ECM, DCM, leveraged finance and restructuring: latest volumes, how each deal works and our 0–10 year outlook.
- $4.44tnGlobal M&A, Jan–Sep 2026 (+27%) · Mergermarket
- $290bnGlobal IPO proceeds YTD · EY
- $2.34tnUS corporate bonds to Oct · SIFMA
Eight industry groups with deal outlooks by region, key numbers and sources.
Browse sectors →95 funding programmes, 53 free workspaces in 24 countries, investor-readiness tools and nine free templates.
- $170.9bnGlobal VC, Q3 2026 · KPMG
- 9Free founder templates
Researched deep-dives on deals, energy and geopolitics, with every source listed.
Read insights →Deal tracker, valuation multiples, events calendar and our track record in one place.
Open the Deal Desk →GDP, growth, FDI and live market data for every market we cover.
Pick a market →Every call we make, dated, with what happened next, including misses.
See our calls →Research and advisory support for deal teams, investors, corporates and founders.
See services →Book a briefing or request a sector, market or round-strategy brief.
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Insights that spot opportunities and threats early, and bridge today's markets with tomorrow's global market mechanics. Built for people who commit capital, advise on deals or build companies.
- Monthly Deal OutlookOur scores across 6 regions, 8 sectors and 5 deal types, and what changed.
- Insight Deep-DivesResearched, referenced analysis of the forces reshaping deals.
- Early-Warning AlertsA short note only when an event moves markets: wars, rate shocks, trade deadlines.
Global Markets Today
Market Snapshot
Global Equities · Stock Indices by Region
Commodities · Energy, Metals & Agriculture
Sources and notes
Closing values as reported by each source; a 0.00% change may mean the market was closed or the source had not updated. Some markets show a different date (noted on the tile). Yield and rate tables include only countries with a verified figure. For information only, not investment advice.
Eight sectors, one deal lens
Deal-focused intelligence across eight industry groups: the latest sourced data, what drives value, and our outlook region by region over the short, medium and long run.
Updated weekly, every Monday: deals, IPOs, funding rounds and capital-markets data. Live Market updates daily.
Pick a sub-sector to see who leads, where they are headquartered and what shapes profits. Choose a region to spin the globe and filter the leaders.
Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)
Software, chips, networks and content: where AI spending, platform shifts and spectrum auctions are redrawing valuations.
Technology
Media & Telecom
Technology M&A, Jan–Sep 2026, up 36%: top sector for eleven straight quarters
ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗Global chip sales in Q3 2026, up 24.1% on Q2
SIA ↗Expected 2026 AI-infrastructure spend by Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft
PwC ↗AI pulls chip demand everywhere
Semiconductor sales growth, Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025, %Source: SIA ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Media is consolidatingParamount Skydance proposed buying Warner Bros. Discovery at a $110bn enterprise value. PwC ↗
- Access beats ownershipBuyers use stakes, partnerships and capacity deals to reach AI assets too costly to buy outright. PwC ↗
- Software under the microscopeBuyers sort targets into AI-native, AI-resilient or AI-exposed. PwC ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- SoftwareEV/revenue, ARR growth, net revenue retention, Rule of 40
- SemiconductorsEV/EBITDA through the cycle, capacity and design wins
- Telecom & mediaEV/EBITDA, subscribers, spectrum and content libraries
Sector sources (3)
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefHealthcare & Life Sciences
From drug pipelines to care delivery: how patent cliffs, pricing policy and digital adoption drive deal flow.
Sub-sectors
Life-sciences deal value in H1 2026, up 140% year on year (86 deals)
EY via PharmaVoice ↗Share of H1 deals for pre-phase-3 assets (10-year average: 43%)
EY via PharmaVoice ↗Healthcare M&A in Q3 2026 incl. contingents, down 49% on Q2 (120 deals)
DealForma ↗Q3 cooled across every channel
Healthcare & life sciences deal value, Q3 2026, US$bnSource: DealForma ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- China is the new pipelineChina-based companies took 54% of alliance deal value (biobucks) in H1 2026, up from 34% in 2025. EY via PharmaVoice ↗
- Mid-size, not megaFive deals topped $10bn in H1; EY expects mega-mergers to stay rare. EY via PharmaVoice ↗
- Q3's biggestVertex's ~$10bn acquisition of Crinetics closed on 1 Sep. DealForma ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- BiopharmaRisk-adjusted NPV of the pipeline; multiples of peak sales
- MedtechEV/revenue and EV/EBITDA; installed base and reimbursement
- ProvidersEV/EBITDA; payer mix, occupancy and labour costs
Sector sources (2)
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefFinancial Institutions Group (FIG)
Banks, insurers and asset managers: how interest rates, regulation and capital rules set the pace of consolidation.
Sub-sectors
Financial-services deals in H1 2026, up 3%; value fell to $134.5bn
EY ↗Share of H1 value in 25 deals above $1bn
EY ↗Private-credit assets under management
PwC ↗Europe leads by value
Financial-services M&A value by region, H1 2026, US$bnSource: EY ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Insurance megadealsCorebridge–Equitable (~$22bn) and Zurich–Beazley ($10.9bn) were announced. PwC ↗
- Wealth goes globalNuveen proposed a $12.9bn acquisition of Schroders. PwC ↗
- Biggest US deal of Q3Aon North America's proposed $17bn purchase of USI. S&P Global Market Intelligence via ANI ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- BanksPrice/tangible book vs return on tangible equity; capital ratios
- InsurersPrice/book or embedded value; combined ratio
- Asset & wealth managers% of AUM, fee margins and net flows
Sector sources (3)
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefConsumer & Retail
Brands, channels and spending power: how consumer demand and margins shape M&A.
Sub-sectors
Share of consumer deal value from megadeals ($5bn+) in 2026, up from 39%
PwC ↗Consumer deal volume on track for 2026
PwC ↗Indian consumer & retail deals in Q3 2026, worth $1.92bn
Grant Thornton Bharat via The Federal ↗India: where the Q3 money went
Indian consumer & retail deals, Q3 2026, US$mMarket pulse
What the latest data says- Fewer, bigger betsMcCormick proposed a $44.8bn combination with Unilever's food business. PwC ↗
- Must-have assets onlyPwC: "There is less room for average in consumer M&A." PwC ↗
- India's e-commerce leadsE-commerce was India's most active segment by volume in Q3 for the first time since Q4 2024. Grant Thornton Bharat via The Federal ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- Brands & FMCGEV/EBITDA; brand strength and pricing power
- RetailLike-for-like sales, store economics, customer data
- HospitalityEV/EBITDA; occupancy and average spend
Sector sources (2)
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefIndustrials & Aerospace
Manufacturing, mobility and defence: how supply chains, reshoring and order books shape deal activity.
Sub-sectors
US industrials M&A in Q3 2026 (689 deals): the top sector, value up 60%+
S&P Global Market Intelligence via ANI ↗Global aerospace & defence deal value tracking for 2026
PwC ↗Combined backlog of the five largest defence primes, up 23.7%
PwC ↗Europe is rearming
Core defence spending, 2026 estimate, % of GDPSource: Reuters (NATO estimates) ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- The new targetNATO allies agreed 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035, plus 1.5% on related investment. Reuters (NATO estimates) ↗
- Five already thereLithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Greece are forecast above 3.5% in 2026. Reuters (NATO estimates) ↗
- Long visibilityUS defence funding extends contractor revenue visibility through 2029 and beyond. PwC ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- Aerospace & defenceEV/EBITDA; backlog, book-to-bill and aftermarket mix
- Industrial machineryEV/EBITDA through the cycle; installed base
- LogisticsEV/EBITDA; network density and contract tenor
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefReal Estate, Gaming & Lodging (REGAL)
Property, casinos and hotels: the interest rates, occupancy and travel flows behind asset values.
Sub-sectors
Global commercial real estate investment in Q3 2026, up 7% year on year
JLL ↗Year-to-date global investment growth
JLL ↗Asia Pacific year-to-date growth, the fastest region
JLL ↗Recovery is broad-based
Real estate investment, year to date vs 2025, %Source: JLL ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- REITs & propertyCap rates, net asset value, FFO/AFFO multiples
- HotelsRevPAR, EV/EBITDA, replacement cost
- CasinosEV/EBITDA; licence terms and regional gaming revenue
Sector sources (1)
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefNatural Resources, Metals & Mining
Gold, copper and critical minerals: commodity cycles and the race for supply security.
Sub-sectors
Copper's all-time high on the LME, US$ per tonne (2026)
Caixin Global ↗Gold Fields' approach for Northern Star (US$27.1bn when made), rejected
Reuters via KELO ↗Copper demand from data centres by 2040, up from 1.1Mt in 2025 (S&P)
Caixin Global ↗Copper's run
LME copper, US$ per tonneSource: Caixin Global ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Supply is tightLME stocks fell from 400,000t in mid-April to 237,700t by 8 Sep as metal moved to the US. Caixin Global ↗
- Gold consolidationNorthern Star said Gold Fields' offer fell "well short" of fundamental value. Reuters via KELO ↗
- Megadeal in motionGold Fields' bid was among Q3's largest global deals. LSEG via Reuters ↗
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- MinersPrice/NAV at long-term prices; EV/EBITDA
- OperationsReserve life, grade and all-in sustaining cost (AISC)
- AgricultureEV/EBITDA; land value and yields
Need a deal brief or market synthesis on this sector?
Request a sector briefEnergy, Power & CleanTech
Oil, gas, power and the transition: supply shocks, grid investment and clean-tech capital flows.
Oil & Gas
Power & CleanTech
Clean-energy investment expected in 2026, vs ~$1.2tn for oil, gas and coal
IEA via SolarQuarter ↗Renewables M&A in H1 2026, up 20%
Enerdatics ↗Renewable capacity added in 2025, a record (511 GW solar)
IRENA via pv magazine ↗Market pulse
What the latest data says- AI needs powerHyperscaler capex estimated at $697bn in 2026 is lifting demand for grid, gas and clean power. LSEG FTSE Russell ↗
- Capital rotates to storage and gridsSee the renewables deep dive below for where the money is going.
How deals are valued
Common lenses buyers and lenders use- Upstream oil & gasEV/EBITDAX and net asset value of reserves
- Midstream & utilitiesEV/EBITDA, contracted cash flows and regulated asset base
- RenewablesProject IRR on contracted power prices; $ per MW
Sector sources (4)
Deep dive below: Renewable energy. Related Insight: The long war: how the Iran–US conflict is redrawing the world's energy map
Record build-out, capital rotating to storage and grids
Our latest read of the renewables market for deal teams: how fast capacity is growing, where the money is going, and what that means for M&A over the short, medium and long run.
View as table
| Year | GW added |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 295 |
| 2023 | 473 |
| 2024 | 585 |
| 2025 | 692 |
View as table
| Area | US$ bn |
|---|---|
| Renewable power (incl. solar ≈365) | ≈665 |
| Electricity grids | ≈550 |
| Energy efficiency | ≈350 |
| Natural gas | ≈330 |
| Coal | ≈180 |
| Battery storage | >100 |
| Nuclear | >80 |
Renewables deal flow by region · H1 2026
Record 69 battery storage deals (18 GW), double last year. Wind steady; solar deals down about 15%.
Largest deal: CIP buys Ørsted's European onshore platform ($1.7B)Solar deals up about 70% and wind up 80%. India saw 21 solar deals covering 3.5 GW.
Australia: most solar deals now include batteriesDeal flow down about 70% year on year as investors wait for policy and currency clarity.
Anchor deal: CPP's $1.7B investment in Inkia, PeruOpportunities
- Storage and grids. Grid spending is near $550B and battery storage above $100B in 2026. Short to medium run.
- Operating, contracted assets. About 80% of deals target late-stage or operating projects, so well-contracted portfolios command premiums. Short run.
- Discounted listed funds. Listed renewable funds trade 25–40% below asset value, creating take-private and secondary deals. Short run.
- Emerging growth markets. New capacity grew 28.9% in the Middle East and 15.9% in Africa in 2025, the fastest on record for both. Medium to long run.
Threats
- Merchant revenue risk. Battery revenues in Texas (ERCOT) fell 37% in 2025, so uncontracted assets face price pressure. Short run.
- Fossil competition for capital. Gas investment is at a decade high and coal the highest since 2012. Renewables' share of new capacity slipped to 85.6% from 92.5%. Medium run.
- Supply and security shocks. Middle East shipping disruption and tight turbine supply raise costs and delay projects. Short to medium run.
- Policy and trade shifts. Subsidy changes and tariffs can reprice pipelines quickly, especially in the US and Latin America. Medium run.
Sources: IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (2025 additions and installed capacity); IEA World Energy Investment 2026 (2026 estimates); Enerdatics Renewables M&A Outlook H1 2026 (deal flow). Opportunities and threats are Meridian Global's views, for information only and not investment advice. Data as of October 2026.
Deal Coverage: Products & Transactions
Industry Coverage tells you where the deals are. Deal Coverage tells you how they get done: the structure, financing and market window behind each of the five main transaction types, with the latest data from named sources.
Updated weekly, every Monday: deals, financing conditions, market windows and the deal calendar. Live Market updates daily.
Last updated: 12 Nov 2026, 16:02 GMTFive ways capital changes hands
Each product has its own market window. Pick one to see the latest volumes, what is driving them, how a deal works, and our 0–10 year outlook.
Mergers & Acquisitions
Transactions that change who owns or controls a business: acquisitions, mergers, divestitures, spin-offs and joint ventures.
Who uses it: Corporates, private equity sponsors, family offices and sovereign funds
- 1Strategy & screeningDefine the thesis, screen targets or buyers, approach
- 2Valuation & diligenceModel value and synergies; financial, legal and tax diligence
- 3Sign, approve & closeNegotiate terms, secure regulatory and shareholder approval, integrate
Global M&A value, 9M26, across 32,419 deals (+27%). Only 9M21 was higher ($4.55tn).
ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗Global M&A in Q3 2026, down 41% on Q2: the first sub-$1tn quarter since Q2 2025.
LSEG via Reuters ↗Cross-border M&A in H1 2026, up 63%: a two-decade high and 26% of all volume.
J.P. Morgan ↗Where the money went, 9M26
Deal value by target region, US$tnSource: ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗
Data note: Data providers count deals differently. Mergermarket puts 9M26 at $4.44tn; LSEG puts 2026 to 30 Sep at $3.9tn (+28%). Both show a record-level year that slowed in Q3. ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗ LSEG via Reuters ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Tech leads againTechnology drew $1.1tn across 7,987 deals (+36%), the top sector for eleven straight quarters. ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗
- Megadeals carried H148 deals of $10bn+ worth $1.3tn in H1, a record 42% of volume; Q3 had only ten. J.P. Morgan ↗
- Sponsors sell more than they buyPrivate equity buyouts fell 11% to $584bn, while exits rose 12% to $605bn. ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗
- Execution still decides value60.5% of Q3 acquirers underperformed the MSCI World index after closing. WTW Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor ↗
What it covers
Hover or tap for a definitionOur outlook
Meridian Global view, not adviceWatch: Financing costs with the 10-year US Treasury above 5%; antitrust and foreign-investment reviews; US midterm volatility.
How we help
Research & advisory support- Market and target screening by region, sector and PESTEL risk
- Buyer and seller mapping for divestitures and carve-outs
- Valuation and deal-timing context from live market data
- Post-deal outlook: what the next 1–10 years mean for the asset
Sources (5)
- ION Analytics / Mergermarket, “Global M&A momentum slows in 3Q26 after record-chasing first half” 1 Oct 2026
- Reuters (LSEG data), “Global M&A deal rush fades in third quarter as rising borrowing costs bite” 1 Oct 2026
- LSEG Deals Intelligence, “Global M&A update: a record-breaking market that's becoming increasingly concentrated” 12 Aug 2026
- J.P. Morgan, “2026 Global M&A Mid-Year Outlook (data to 30 Jun 2026)” Jul 2026
- WTW Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor, “Global M&A market hits new high as bigger deals dominate” 8 Oct 2026
Planning an acquisition or sale?
Request a Deal BriefEquity Capital Markets
Raising capital by selling shares: initial public offerings, follow-ons, block trades, convertibles and private placements.
Who uses it: Growth companies, sponsor-backed businesses, listed corporates and governments selling stakes
- 1Readiness & equity storyGovernance, audited accounts, the investment case and peer valuation
- 2Bookbuild & pricingRoadshow, investor orders, price range and allocation
- 3Listing & aftermarketFirst trade, stabilisation, research and investor relations
Global IPO proceeds to the end of Q3 2026, more than double the $114bn a year earlier.
EY ↗Indian IPOs in Q3 2026, out of 387 worldwide: India led global listings by count.
EY ↗Global convertible issuance by 22 July: the best year-to-date on record (prior: $130.7bn in 2021).
Dealogic via ION Analytics ↗Q3 2026 IPO proceeds by market
US$bn raised in the quarterSource: EY Switzerland ↗
Data note: EY counts $290bn of IPO proceeds year to date; LSEG counts $215bn excluding SPACs, still the highest since 2021. Definitions of what counts as an IPO differ. EY ↗ LSEG via Reuters ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Fewer, bigger listingsAmericas IPOs fell to 34 from 69 in Q3, yet proceeds doubled to $36bn. EY ↗
- One deal moved the quarterSK Hynix's $26.5bn listing was Q3's largest IPO; technology made up ~67% of global proceeds. EY Switzerland ↗
- AI is funded with equity-linked paperAlphabet's twin convertibles ($19.25bn combined) were the year's largest; tech is 53% of convertible volume. Dealogic via ION Analytics ↗
- Hong Kong's tech channel worksChapter 18C listings have raised over $4.6bn this year, four times their first three years combined. EY ↗
What it covers
Hover or tap for a definitionOur outlook
Meridian Global view, not adviceWatch: Rising rates after the Fed's first hike since 2023; valuation discipline; the US election cycle and AI-spending sentiment.
How we help
Research & advisory support- IPO readiness and market-window analysis
- Peer valuation and equity-story research
- Investor targeting across regions, including Gulf and Asian funds
- Private placement and pre-IPO investor mapping
Sources (5)
- EY, “Global IPO proceeds more than double in Q3 2026 (EY Global IPO Trends)” 23 Oct 2026
- EY Switzerland, “Global IPO highlights in Q3 2026” 6 Oct 2026
- EY, “Global IPO Trends Q3 2026: how the IPO market proved its resilience” 13 Oct 2026
- ION Analytics (Dealogic data), “Global convertibles issuance hits new milestone as tech companies raise record amount” 24 Jul 2026
- Reuters (LSEG data), “Global M&A deal rush fades in third quarter as rising borrowing costs bite” 1 Oct 2026
Weighing an IPO or equity raise?
Request a Deal BriefDebt Capital Markets
Raising money by selling bonds and other securities to investors: investment-grade, high-yield, sovereign, green and structured debt.
Who uses it: Corporates, banks, governments, agencies and infrastructure issuers
- 1Rating & documentationCredit rating, offering documents and use of proceeds
- 2Roadshow & bookbuildInvestor meetings, price guidance and order book
- 3Price, settle & reportFinal coupon, allocation, settlement and ongoing disclosure
US corporate bond issuance through October 2026, up 19.5% on 2025.
SIFMA ↗US investment-grade bond sales by 26 Oct: a new annual record, passing 2020's $1.75tn with two months to go.
Bloomberg News ↗Hyperscaler investment-grade bonds by early October across currencies, more than double 2025's $107bn.
LSEG FTSE Russell ↗AI turns into a credit story
Hyperscaler USD investment-grade bonds by year, US$bn (2026 to 2 Oct)Source: LSEG FTSE Russell ↗
Data note: US figures are used because SIFMA publishes primary issuance data monthly; global totals vary widely by provider and are not shown. SIFMA ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Index weight is shiftingHyperscalers are 4.7% of the FTSE US BIG Corporate index, up from 2.7% two years earlier. LSEG FTSE Russell ↗
- Capex is the driverJ.P. Morgan estimates the five hyperscalers' capex will reach $697bn by end-2026 (cited by LSEG). LSEG FTSE Russell ↗
- Coupons are higherThe 10-year US Treasury yield reached 5.34% on 1 Oct, its highest since 2002. LSEG via Reuters ↗
What it covers
Hover or tap for a definitionOur outlook
Meridian Global view, not adviceWatch: Duration risk with yields above 5%; concentration in AI-linked borrowers; supply indigestion if spreads widen.
How we help
Research & advisory support- Issuer and sector credit context for bond investors
- Sovereign and country-risk briefs for government issuers
- Green and transition-finance market analysis
- Refinancing-window timing using rates and commodity outlooks
Sources (4)
- SIFMA, “US Corporate Bonds Statistics (issuance through October 2026)” 2 Nov 2026
- Bloomberg News, “AI Funding Drives US High-Grade Bond Sales to Annual Record” 26 Oct 2026
- LSEG FTSE Russell, “AI's borrowing boom: what it means for bond indices” 29 Oct 2026
- Reuters (LSEG data), “Global M&A deal rush fades in third quarter as rising borrowing costs bite” 1 Oct 2026
Planning a bond issue or refinancing?
Request a Deal BriefLeveraged Finance
Debt for borrowers rated below investment grade, most often to fund private-equity buyouts and acquisitions.
Who uses it: Private equity sponsors, leveraged corporates, banks, private credit funds and CLO managers
- 1Underwrite & structureLeverage, pricing, covenants and the equity cheque
- 2Syndicate or place privatelyBroadly syndicated loans, high-yield bonds or direct lenders
- 3Monitor & refinanceCovenant tests, repricings, amend-and-extend or exit
Direct-lending deals refinanced into the syndicated loan market in Q3: the most since LCD began tracking in 2022.
PitchBook LCD ↗Average spread cut on those Q3 refinancings (2025: 231bp), as banks win back larger borrowers.
PitchBook LCD ↗Private credit lending to unrated mid-market and large-cap businesses.
PitchBook via American Investment Council ↗Banks are winning back borrowers
Average spread saved when private loans refinance into syndicated loans, bpSource: PitchBook LCD ↗
Data note: Leveraged-loan volume figures from Sikich are unattributed in its update; we use them for direction, not precision. Sikich ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Buyout financing is backUS M&A loans hit $30.6bn in September, the most since January 2022, with eight $1bn+ LBO loans. Sikich ↗
- Software is out of favourSoftware was only 10% of new leveraged loan issuance in Q3. Sikich ↗
- Private credit stress is realFitch's US private credit default rate hit a record 6% in April 2026. Fitch via Bloomberg Law ↗
- Exits outpace buyoutsGlobal PE exits rose 12% to $605bn in 9M26 while buyouts fell 11%. ION Analytics / Mergermarket ↗
What it covers
Hover or tap for a definitionOur outlook
Meridian Global view, not adviceWatch: Higher-for-longer rates, software credit stress and refinancing walls in 2027–28.
How we help
Research & advisory support- Sector and downside cases for LBO underwriting
- Comparable deal and credit-quality context
- Lender and private-credit landscape mapping
- Exit-route analysis for sponsors
Sources (5)
- PitchBook LCD, “Leveraged loan market poaches record $12B of direct-lending deals in Q3” 25 Sep 2026
- Sikich, “Q3 2026 credit market update” 13 Oct 2026
- American Investment Council (PitchBook data), “Private Credit Landscape” Oct 2026
- Bloomberg Law (Fitch data), “US Private Credit Defaults Hit New Record of 6% in April: Fitch” May 2026
- ION Analytics / Mergermarket, “Global M&A momentum slows in 3Q26 after record-chasing first half” 1 Oct 2026
Assessing a buyout or financing?
Request a Deal BriefRestructuring & Distressed Situations
Fixing a balance sheet that no longer works: renegotiating debt, raising rescue capital, or reorganising in or out of court.
Who uses it: Companies under financial pressure, lenders, creditor groups and distressed investors
- 1Diagnose liquidity13-week cash flow, covenant headroom and options
- 2NegotiateLenders, bondholders and new money on a recapitalisation plan
- 3ImplementOut-of-court deal, pre-pack or Chapter 11 / administration
Large US corporate bankruptcy filings in H1 2026, the highest first half since 2010.
S&P Global Market Intelligence via CFO Dive ↗US speculative-grade default rate in August 2026 (global: 4.5%, long-run average 4.2%).
Moody's via First Trust ↗Small-business Subchapter V elections in the first nine months of 2026 (2,442 filings).
Epiq AACER / ABI ↗Defaults: above average, forecast to ease
Moody's speculative-grade default rates, %Source: Moody's via First Trust ↗ · F = forecast
Data note: Moody's forecasts are its baseline as published in September 2026; S&P's large-bankruptcy count covers public companies and private firms with public debt above set thresholds. Moody's via First Trust ↗ S&P Global Market Intelligence via CFO Dive ↗
Market pulse
What the latest data says- Industrials hurt mostIndustrials (50), consumer discretionary (35) and healthcare (26) led large US filings in H1. S&P Global Market Intelligence via CFO Dive ↗
- Big filings, steady overallUS commercial Chapter 11 filings were 624 in October, down 2% year on year. Epiq AACER / ABI ↗
- Private credit is the pressure pointFitch's US private credit default rate reached a record 6% in April. Fitch via Bloomberg Law ↗
What it covers
Hover or tap for a definitionOur outlook
Meridian Global view, not adviceWatch: Further rate hikes into 2027; amend-and-extend loans that defer rather than fix problems; war-exposed sectors.
How we help
Research & advisory support- Early-warning research on sector and country distress
- Market context for lenders and creditor groups
- Buyer mapping for distressed assets
- Scenario analysis for recapitalisation plans
Sources (4)
- CFO Dive (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), “US corporate bankruptcies hover at 16-year high” 13 Jul 2026
- First Trust (Moody's data), “Factoid: Moody's default rates and forecasts” 17 Sep 2026
- Epiq AACER / ABI, “October Small Business Subchapter V Elections Increase 24% Year Over Year” 6 Nov 2026
- Bloomberg Law (Fitch data), “US Private Credit Defaults Hit New Record of 6% in April: Fitch” May 2026
Facing a restructuring or distressed situation?
Request a Deal BriefAll Deal Coverage sources (19)
- ION Analytics / Mergermarket, “Global M&A momentum slows in 3Q26 after record-chasing first half” 1 Oct 2026
- Reuters (LSEG data), “Global M&A deal rush fades in third quarter as rising borrowing costs bite” 1 Oct 2026
- LSEG Deals Intelligence, “Global M&A update: a record-breaking market that's becoming increasingly concentrated” 12 Aug 2026
- J.P. Morgan, “2026 Global M&A Mid-Year Outlook (data to 30 Jun 2026)” Jul 2026
- WTW Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor, “Global M&A market hits new high as bigger deals dominate” 8 Oct 2026
- EY, “Global IPO proceeds more than double in Q3 2026 (EY Global IPO Trends)” 23 Oct 2026
- EY Switzerland, “Global IPO highlights in Q3 2026” 6 Oct 2026
- EY, “Global IPO Trends Q3 2026: how the IPO market proved its resilience” 13 Oct 2026
- ION Analytics (Dealogic data), “Global convertibles issuance hits new milestone as tech companies raise record amount” 24 Jul 2026
- SIFMA, “US Corporate Bonds Statistics (issuance through October 2026)” 2 Nov 2026
- Bloomberg News, “AI Funding Drives US High-Grade Bond Sales to Annual Record” 26 Oct 2026
- LSEG FTSE Russell, “AI's borrowing boom: what it means for bond indices” 29 Oct 2026
- PitchBook LCD, “Leveraged loan market poaches record $12B of direct-lending deals in Q3” 25 Sep 2026
- Sikich, “Q3 2026 credit market update” 13 Oct 2026
- American Investment Council (PitchBook data), “Private Credit Landscape” Oct 2026
- Bloomberg Law (Fitch data), “US Private Credit Defaults Hit New Record of 6% in April: Fitch” May 2026
- CFO Dive (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), “US corporate bankruptcies hover at 16-year high” 13 Jul 2026
- First Trust (Moody's data), “Factoid: Moody's default rates and forecasts” 17 Sep 2026
- Epiq AACER / ABI, “October Small Business Subchapter V Elections Increase 24% Year Over Year” 6 Nov 2026
Market data as published by each named source, as of the dates shown (latest: November 2026). Figures from different providers are not always comparable. Outlook ratings are Meridian Global's views, not investment advice. We provide research and advisory support; securities offerings and financing are arranged by regulated banks and lenders.
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Meridian Global is a market intelligence and advisory support firm. We track markets, sectors, deals and start-up funding across six regions, score where opportunity and risk are building, and help investors, companies and founders decide what to do, where, and when.
Big decisions are still made on incomplete pictures.
is the M&A failure rate that research commonly reports.
Harvard Business Review, 2011 ↗of executives blamed deal failure on due diligence that missed critical issues.
Bain & Company, 2020 ↗of managers say most of their decision-making time is used ineffectively.
McKinsey, 2019 ↗of business buyers' purchase time is spent with suppliers; the rest is their own research.
Gartner, 2020 ↗So we built it the other way round: open, sourced research you can check yourself, scored for what matters to a transaction, and a team that turns it into a clear answer when the stakes are high.
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Five promises behind every page.
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- 04AccountableWe log every call, including the ones we got wrong.
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Four ways we help you make the call.
Each service answers one question a deal team, investor or founder has to settle before committing capital. Pick a stage to see which ones help.
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Six ways to work with us, from free research to a team alongside yours. Choose by what you need right now; you can move up or down at any time.
of B2B buyers prefer to buy without talking to a sales rep.
Gartner, June 2025 ↗of decision-makers trust a firm's research more than its marketing to judge what it can do.
Edelman–LinkedIn, 2024 ↗So our research is open. Use the tools, read the Insights, check our track record. Talk to us when you're ready.
What happens after you get in touch
- 1Tell us your questionA two-minute form. Share as much or as little as you like.Day 0
- 2Discovery call20 minutes to understand the decision you're facing.Within 2 working days
- 3Written scopeDeliverables, timing and fees agreed before work starts.After the call
- 4Delivery and follow-upResearch, a briefing call, and updates if markets move.As agreed
We provide research and advisory support. Securities offerings and financing are arranged by regulated firms.
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Tell us what you need →From signal to decision
A repeatable process that keeps every forecast traceable to its evidence.
Scan
Monitor policy, macro data, deal flow and industry news across our coverage markets.
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Build scenarios across three horizons and flag the triggers that would change them.
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Turn findings into a clear view on targets, timing, pricing and structure.
Catalysts
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Themes
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How We Score the Deal Outlook
Every score on this site follows the same process, so you can see how we reach a view and judge it for yourself.
Three Lenses
- By Sector: 8 industry groups
- By Factor: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal
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Three Horizons
- 0–12 months: catalysts, rates, deal pipelines
- 1–3 years: policy, capital flows, sector cycles
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What a Score Means
Expected effect on deal value, volume and execution risk for that region and horizon. For Restructuring, a higher score means more distressed situations.
- CollectOfficial data (IMF, World Bank, central banks), deal data (Mergermarket, LSEG, Dealogic), and bank and asset-manager research.
- SignalIdentify what is changing: policy, prices, capital flows, conflicts and regulation.
- ScoreAnalyst judgement on a −2 to +2 scale, cross-checked across lenses and regions.
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Scores are Meridian Global's views, not investment advice. They rely on public data, which can lag events; some paywalled sources are not used.
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Quick, straight answers about our research, our data, our startup tools and how to work with us.
About usWhat does Meridian Global do?
We provide deal-focused global market intelligence: daily market data, outlooks by region, industry and deal type, researched Insights, research and advisory support, and funding tools for startups.
About usWho is it for?
Corporates and deal teams, private equity and venture funds, family offices, sovereign and institutional investors, advisers, incubators and founders. See Who We Serve.
About usDo you raise capital or execute transactions?
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About usIs this investment advice?
No. Our content is general information only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. Talk to a regulated adviser before making decisions.
Research & dataWhere does your data come from?
Every figure on the site names its source and date: official bodies (IMF, World Bank, central banks), deal data (Mergermarket, LSEG, Dealogic, PitchBook), and research from banks, law firms and industry bodies. Our own views are labelled as such.
Research & dataHow often is the research updated?
Live Market updates daily, every trading day. Industry Coverage and Deal Coverage are updated weekly, every Monday. Each section shows a Last updated stamp. Outlook scores are reviewed monthly, and sooner when a major event moves markets.
Research & dataWhy do your figures sometimes differ from other sources?
Data providers count deals differently, so totals can differ. Where they disagree, we show both and say why. For example, Mergermarket puts global M&A for Jan–Sep 2026 at $4.44tn while LSEG counts $3.9tn.
Research & dataHow are the outlook scores made?
We score each area from −2 (strong threat) to +2 (strong opportunity) over three horizons, 0–12 months, 1–3 years and 3–10 years, using official data, deal data and institutional research. See our Methodology.
Research & dataDo you publish your mistakes?
Yes. Our Track Record logs every call with its date, each revision and what happened next, including misses.
Research & dataWhat do you cover?
6 regions, 8 industry groups and 5 deal types (M&A, ECM, DCM, leveraged finance and restructuring), plus country fact sheets for 24 markets.
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StartupsCan you help us raise a round?
We provide advisory support: investor long-lists, valuation ranges from comparable rounds, round strategy and plain-English term-sheet notes. We are not a broker and cannot guarantee an outcome. See Raise Capital.
StartupsDo you help with grants and accelerators?
Yes. The Funding Finder covers 95 programmes with deadlines, and we offer application reviews.
StartupsWhich countries do your startup guides cover?
Our Raise in… guides cover India, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
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